My Uber Lost Theory

Welcome to the First Post of Lostigator.

This is an attempted reconstruction of a grand theory which I posted elsewhere but which was accidentally deleted. It was sparked by some discussions on the IMDB boards following what I feel was a paradigm shifting revelation in Enter 77, and has been added to since.

I think we all realize now that there is something special about the Island. At first it just seemed like a magnetic anomaly but since The Man From Tallahassee it seems more likely that there is some sort of reality altering principle at work on the Island. Ben's "magic box" is the most concrete aspect of this but there are also things like Locke's working legs and the manifestation of various people on the Island.

Ben's people have been there for an undetermined length of time. Perhaps they are descended from those who built the statue. However, the same properties which make the Island special also make conception difficult. It is very rare for children to be born on the Island. Ben's status among the Others is due in part to his having been born on the Island.

Because of this property there is a continuing need to recruit people in order to replenish their society. The basis of Other society is still not known. They clearly see themselves as moral people. However, the persistent use of the term "good" seems to imply more than simply a moral dichotomy between good and evil. Instead it seems to imply fitness and unfitness as well. In "Left Behind", Locke makes a case for Kate being included among the Others based on her intelligence and resourcefulness, and not her morals. Similarly we see that the Others are very highly trained, particularly in combat techniques. Even Juliet, who has only been with them for three years, reacts with lightning fast reflexes when Kate attacks her, and snaps to attention immediately upon hearing the knife blade click into place.

I think that this need for replacements is what brought the Black Rock there. The story that we've been told of the Black Rock has always struck me as unconvincing. The idea that a slave ship accidentally arrived there in the 1880s seems wrong. It's well past the high point of the African slave trade and in the wrong part of the world. There were far more lucrative and safe options to invest in in the 1880s. What makes more sense is if the ship was ALWAYS bound for the Island. Unable to reproduce the Others would have required constant replenishment and may have resorted to force labor. I believe that the Black Rock got wrecked there when making a delivery of laborers. Alternatively the Black Rock may have been on an expedition to the Island and gotten wrecked there. The Others may be descendants of the Black Rock's crew.

Whatever the case, sometime in the late 1970s Dharma decides to set up shop on the Island. They would likely be aware of it because of the presence of Magnus Hanso on the Black Rock and Alvar Hanso's involvement in the Dharma Initiative. Whether they set up shop on the Island specifically because of the reality warping properties or jsut because of the difficulty of access is another question but I think it is the former.

Whatever the case, the Dharma Initiative is able to gain control of most of the Island from the Others. However, conflict is endemic. By the mid 1980s things are becoming problematic. The Blast Door Map lists a series of system failures in the mid 1980s. These may have been deliberate sabotage by the Others or just the result of difficult maintnance. Either way, by 1988 Dharma has had enough. They decide to Purge the Others from the Island. Dharma loses. In my opinion they are effectively pushed off the Island. The Others inherit most of Dharma's instilations, such as the Barracks and the Hydra. The process may have taken several years however, as soldiers such as Bakunin and Kelvin were still being recruited in the early to mid 1990s.

However, Dharma still maintains some interest in the Island. They have managed to cordon it off. Leaving the Island has never been easy and the added level of Dharam security means that the Others have to use the submarine Galaga to come and go. The difficulty in coming and going explains in part why they did not simply remove Ben from the Island for treatment. That would be a last resort.

The one part of the Island that I think Dharma may have retained control over is the Swan. They were still willing to make food drops to it, which would seem to indicate that they had some interest in keeping it going. Alternatively the Others may have inherited it and it was simply so vital for the Swan to be kept going that Dharma was willing to resupply its enemies.

Either way, I think that the Swan is in an area which the Others do not like to visit. I think the reason is because of the Monster. If we look at the Blast Door Map we see that there are several "CV"s clustered around the Swan. Now "CV" apparently stands for "Cerberus Vent". "Cerberus" is most likely the Monster. I think that it is based near the Swan. If we look back over the history of the show we see that, until Left Behind, the Monster has never been encountered very far from the Swan. This concentration of Monster activity has kept the Others from mounting more aggressive operations agains the 815ers. It also explains why they are willing to cede part of the Island to them, and why no more than one of them ever makes contact with the survivors at one time. I think the Smoke Monster is just what Danielle said, a security system left over from the days of the Dharma Initiative. Perhaps Dharma is still in control of it, or perhaps the Monster is operating on pre-existing instructions. Whatever the case, the Others don't like it.

When Flight 815 crashed, Ben saw an opportunity for recruitment. He sends out Ethan and GFoodwin to make lists of likely recruits. Goodwin works quicker and they take some the first night. Then more on day twelve. Ethan has more trouble. It takes him longer to get to the fuselage and he's further from help. Moreover he sees something which changes the whole game for him. Claire. Claire is pregnant and they might be able to get a baby. He becomes obsessed with Claire and Aaron. On day fifteen he attempts to inject Claire. In response Hurley decides to make his Island census. Realizing that time is growing short Ethan takes Claire and Charlie the next day.

At the same time the Others are putting into motion their plan to get Walt. The steal him from the raft. I think they do this for their own reasons, because Walt is "special." However, it also ends up giving them leverage over Michael which they will use to get him to operate on Ben.

I also think that there are factions among the Others. We know that Juliet is disaffected enough to want to kill Ben. He also confesses to Locke that his control over the group is somewhat tenuous. Richard Alpert and Tom seem to be Ben loyalists but the true allegience of everyone else must be questioned.

Still, it seems likely at this point that Juliet is a plant. Her being left behind is just too convenient and now the Others have one of their top doctors in a position to observe both Aaron and Sun's pregnancy.